Boundary review will boost Tories in West Lancs, experts predict

Jun 9 2011 by John Siddle, Skelmersdale Advertiser

LABOUR MP Rosie Cooper will see her 4,000-plus majority culled in a dramatic redraw of her West Lancashire constituency, academics predict.

David Cameron’s boundary review – aimed at cutting the number of MPs in Parliament by 50 – is set to see four Tory stronghold wards absorbed from South Ribble.

The electoral map in 2015 will see 12,500 registered voters in the Northern Parishes – Tarleton, Rufford, Meols and Hesketh-with-Becconsall – absorbed into West Lancs for the first time.

Six thousand voters in Parbold and Wrightington are expected to move out of the constituency into South Ribble.

Researchers Democratic Audit believe Ms Cooper’s majority would be hit under the presumed changes, with the Conservatives the main beneficiaries.

The new wards enjoy a turnout far higher than in Labour’s Skelmersdale wards, with a predominant Tory electorate.

Dr Stuart Wilks-Heeg said his team used a model based on rigid guidelines set out by the Boundary Commission, who will formally announce the changes in September.

The constituency map will be redrawn so each one has roughly the same number of voters.

Dr Wilks-Heeg, based at the University of Liverpool, said: “Our estimates suggest the changes would not have changed who won in 2010.

“However, they would make the Conservative challenge stronger in West Lancs in 2015.”

Ms Cooper said she would “fight hard in the best interests” of all West Lancs residents, regardless of changes.

She told the Advertiser: “This is an academic view of potential changes and joins other speculation about how the West Lancashire constituency may change.

“It is far too early to speculate on the result of any future changes, indeed nobody predicted that I would retain the seat at the last general election with a majority of over 4,000.

“Whatever the West Lancashire constituency looks like at the next general election I will fight hard in the best interests of all residents.

“In the end, the voters of West Lancashire will choose the best person for the job.”

Andrew Cheetham, Conservative councillor in Tarleton, added: “I think we would all welcome the chance to finally cement a place in a clearly defined area. It’s quite frustrating that we’re between two authorities.

“We’re represented in Parliament by South Ribble but governed locally by West Lancs Borough Council.

“We do feel a little bit unloved and it makes total sense to be incorporated within a West Lancs constituency.”

The new seats will be announced in September.